Is America no more a foe to Russia(ns)?

The opposition intelligentsia in Russia is mostly sympathetic to their US peers, the Democrats, in academia and the NGO community, and they also despise Donald Trump’s politics and style.

But even the opposition took a breath of relief with Trump’s victory. The fact is that since the winter protests of 2011-2012 against the rigged elections and the return of Putin to the presidency, the Russian regime has used the strategy of smearing its critics by accusing them of links to "evil American influences".

That led to a legal, political, and media pressure on activists, many of whom have emigrated since 2012, and on independent civil society organisations which were subject to restrictions by a new "foreign agents" law. Thus, hostile relations with the US were instrumental in subduing the independent civil society. Nobody knows whether the regime will cease using this approach, but it would make sense to do so after America stops being a foe.

Even within the more radical opposition that would call such a consideration a "Stockholm syndrome", there are some hopes that President Trump will prove to be a more difficult partner for Putin. This faction considered Barack Obama’s foreign policy a failure, not because it alienated Putin and imposed sanctions, but because that policy did not bring the desired results. They claim that Obama’s perceived "weakness" encouraged Putin to adopt more aggressive policies both at home and abroad, and they hope Trump will be a "tough Republican" keeping Putin quiet.

Time will tell what direction US-Russian relations will embark on. But if history is to have any predictive value, we should not be too optimistic. Both George W Bush and Barack Obama started their presidencies with rapprochement between the two countries - Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul, while Obama was eager for a "reset" policy. Both ended their second terms at a low point in relations (with the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 and with Syria and the hacking scandal in 2016, respectively).

Will this pattern be repeated with President Trump; will we witness a honeymoon for a year or two and the return to hostility in the longer term? The probability is high, but nothing is for sure.

After all, we know that the Trump presidency will be over in 2020 or 2024, but don’t know when the Putin presidency will end. It may happen before Trump’s term expires. And that would definitely open a new chapter in the troubled Russian-US relations.

Ivan Kurilla (Al Jazeera)