Russia’s good food, Iran’s poison

Russia’s good food, Iran’s poison
It all goes back to the mid 1980s and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin was not there in person, but definitely in the shadow waiting for the right moment for a career. Gorbatchev was the boss, with Yeltsin so close, with Putin advancing in the ranks waiting for the enthusiastic revolutionary Yeltsin to be sidelined. The shroud calculating charismatic Putin took over; and he has been there for almost two decades jumping between the presidency and the prime ministry.

The first blow to the head of Russia − the Soviet Union heir − was George W. Bush’s war on Iraq. Putin (not yet in full power) must have thought that had the Soviet Union been there, it wouldn’t have happened. All along, Vladimir Putin was waiting for a moment to bring back some of that super power flavor to his leadership. The Arab Spring first upheavals were the second blow to Putin’s calculations. In his backyard, he made the responses to what he considered the West intrusion in world affairs. He annexed Crimea and put his hand on some parts of Ukraine. His crucial move was interference in Syria, thousands of miles away from Putin’s main land. He took advantage of Obama’s looseness and driving from behind policies. 

Brutally, in fifteen months, he did what he wanted in Syria, to the happiness of Iran and Assad regime which must have thought that Putin saved them for free. The calculating man realized that the tide is turning; Obama is leaving, and a newcomer to the White House should be different, though he showed friendliness towards the little Tsar. Putin must have also realized that a Syrian package deal must be ready and done before January 21, 2017.

At one point everyone who says “NO” to Bashar Assad was labeled “terrorist” by Putin. Suddenly, those same “terrorists” were co-signers of a truce Putin engineered with Turkey as guarantors of “comprehensive cease-fire” in Syria. 

The most striking point in the cease-fire agreement and the peace talks between the Assad regime and Syrian Opposition was the TIME PLAN. Everything should be done before Trump assumes power in the US. 

Putin overlooked the assassination of his ambassador to Turkey and the definite opposition to such an accord by the Assad regime and its Iranian patron; he trivialized the role of the UN, mentioning it in passing; and he was so keen on preserving a role for the US backing of such an accord, despite the last Obama hostile move concerning the expulsion of the Russian diplomats. His last rush was to have a Security Council cover for his agreement. He got it. 

The most dangerous aspect of his rush is the claim by Syrian Opposition – may be true − that he handed in to the Assad regime a copy of the accord different from the one signed by the Opposition. How he could overcome such a blunder − if it is true − no one yet knows. 

Guaranteeing cease-fire in Syria requires the departure of ALL foreign militias on Syrian soil. If Putin has played with that, nothing could salvage his accord, even if he gets Mr. Trump to his side. It is true that Putin has reached the peak of his achievement in Syria; but every extra day he spends there means loss and decay of the grand prize. Time is his worst enemy; and Iran’s best friend. A clash of interests is unavoidable. He will work on stopping the clock; and Iran needs to keep it ticking. 

Some observers of the Syrian dramatic scene say that the Putin’s “peace” plan is too good to be good. In World War II, it was said: “What is good food for a Russian is poison for a German.” Today, the saying goes as follows: “What is good food for a Russian is poison for an Iranian”. Again, can Putin culminate his success with a blow on the head to the Mullahs and their militias? If he wants to succeed and get some of that flavor back, he has no choice but to do so.

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