Assad "dispute knot" between Russia and the US

Lebanese writer and political analyst Huda al-Husseini began her article by US Secretary of State John Kerry stating during a news conference on May 17 that Assad “should never make wrong assuptions about President Obama’s determination to do what is right at any given moment of time.”

The writer then added that on March 2012, Obama stated that the concept of finding a solution to every problem is to deploy our forces, which was never true in the past, will not be true today.

That is why the White House decided that instead of using conventional warfare, US must resort to a new method in the fight against terrorism: unmanned aircraft, special operations and secret missions.

Although the US administration’s efforts to implement the ceasefire in Syria is making cautious progress, few policy makers are optimistic that it could lead to a political progress which ends the conflict, the writer argues.

The writer then explains that Russia has a lot of influence in Syria and Assad’s removal could strip Russia from its influences in the country and in the Middle East. In addition, Russia does not want another Libya in Syria – nor does the US. So it has become very obvious that the Russians will never give up Assad. But what if they too were unable to convince him to cooperate? 

The writer then quotes from an American source saying that “the Russians are trying to use the limited influence they have to get something, stop the fighting for any period of time is a good thing, and if they noticed this during any political will, then they will play that card as much as they can.”

This policy seems to be based on a firm belief among President Obama and also with Kerry that “escalating the conflict will not win the war,” the writer adds, however, some US officials hoped Russia would realize that the next administration will be less cooperative with them.

A diplomat in the US foreign ministry regarding the US military role in Syria, stated that “we can continue what we are doing, or maybe more, but if military strikes on ISIS do not translate to a policy that could be used in negotiations, then how will the game be even after the defeat of ISIS?” the writer adds.

She then asks: “Are there any dimensions to the visit of the commander of US forces in the Middle East, General John Votal, to northern Syria on Saturday?”

What is obvious is that there is no American policy in Iraq nor in Syria regarding what is happening outside of ISIS. The partitioning of Iraq and the survival of Assad are not on the radar of the Obama administration.

Huda al-Husseini in Asharq al-Awsat.