During Obama’s presidency, the YPG and its local mercenaries enjoyed huge delivery of weaponry and political backing from the U.S. In return, they promised to start up an offensive into Raqqa. At first they pushed down the ISIS further to the south from rural northern Raqqa but immediately stopped further advancement after receiving the American weapons. Instead, they tried taking advantage of the situation and captured more areas around Manbij and Azaz. This was an alarming situation for Turkey, which could not wait for five months to see how the new administration in Washington would react. Ankara quickly started a cross-border operation and went down to al-Bab, a strategic town that the YPG wanted to capture to connect its cantons in northern Syria. Now Turkey’s operation in its sixth month, more than 2,000 square kilometers area have been liberated and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, together with the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), are on the verge of liberating al-Bab. Simultaneously, the Turkish and American governments are holding high level meetings to discuss the Raqqa operation.
One day after his meeting with the U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Işık told me that Washington had not made a decision on where to create the safe-zones that President Trump announced.
Looking at the almost daily statements of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on plans to liberate Manbij and Raqqa, it would not be surprising to see a sudden move towards an operation on Manbij in the coming days.
The YPG surely knows well that if the U.S. decides to move on to Raqqa with them, TSK and FSA would not wait a second on their planned operation into Manbij. It would be devastatingly difficult for them to focus on two huge fronts. At the same time, Trump will lose a major ally, which could close down the İncirlik Military Air Base in response to flirtation with a terrorist group that fights against Turkey.
On the other hand, YPG also knows that their influence will almost fade away if the Trump administration chooses to walk into Raqqa with Turkey and its allies.
It should not be forgotten that the struggle Turkey wages is not solely for its fight against the PKK and its affiliates but also for the strength of the Syrian opposition groups that fight for the revolution to eventually topple the brutal Assad regime.
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Mehmet Solmaz is the Brussels correspondent for Daily Sabah. He frequently appears in international media to comment on regional politics and conflicts. You can follow him on Twitter @MhmtSlmz
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