Assad regime vs. Turkey: The race to al-Bab

In Nov. 2016, most analysts agreed that the fall of ISIS-held al-Bab to Turkish-led “Euphrates Shield” forces was imminent. Within weeks, Syrian opposition forces and the Turkish army had cleared towns north and west of the city, reached its perimeters and took first important barriers and hills inside the city’s boundaries. But the hope was in vain.

ISIS fiercely resisted the assault, drove back Turkish-led troops and destroyed multiple armored vehicles, among them a number of German-built “Leopard-2” tanks. In January, pro-regime forces, driven by Iranian-led Shiite militias began their assault east of Aleppo. While then 20 kilometers away from al-Bab, they recently took the town of Arran and can now see the city from 5 kilometers south and 7 kilometers west of al-Bab. – an unprecedented race, no one would have thought of earlier when the question was rather whether Turkish-led or US-led (YPG-dominated) forces would reach al-Bab first.

In late January, a pro-regime activist from Lebanon claimed that Turkey and Russia had agreed that al-Bab would go to Assad who would in this case cement his grip to power in eastern Aleppo province and even would have a starting point to attack ISIS-held Raqqa province to the east. Many activists denounced this as regime propaganda but the next weeks made this scenario more likely.

But will Turkish- and Iranian-led forces really share al-Bab or would Turkey in fact allow the Assad coalition (what is left of the “Assad Army”, Iranian militias and Russia) capture al-Bab? It is hard to imagine. Many of the Turkish-commanded Syrian rebels that take part in the offensive fought Assad and his allies for many years in Aleppo, Latakia and Idlib provinces. Their families were bombed by Russia’s jets throughout 2016 and they had to witness the regime and its allies retaking Aleppo city – a symbol of the revolution. It is barely imaginable that they would allow their arch enemies to capture al-Bab and thus closing the corridor to Raqqa, a major goal of their operation, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced more than once. If Assad took al-Bab according to a foreign-nations agreement, this would be a punch into the face of many rebels who have not just battled the regime, but also ISIS in northern Syria and lost many comrades during that struggle.

On the other side, “Euphrates Shield” forces and regime gangs already share a front of 6 kilometers west of al-Bab, where a total ceasefire between the two parties holds without a single violation. Also all the way up to Azaz, rebels and the Assad-allied militia YPG share a common contact line where clashes became very rare despite the Turkish announcement to fight these Kurdish-led forces. So Ankara’s influence on the rebels seems to be extensive and they will not try to recapture YPG-occupied towns like Tal Rifat without Turkish political and military support.

Turkish leadership and support for Syrian opposition forces in northern Syria brought them a lot of success and enabled them to liberate large tracts of land within the Azaz–Jarabulus–al-Bab triangle. So rebels should think twice before becoming disloyal to Turkey and attacking enemy forces on their own. At the same time, giving cities like al-Bab to Assad because of being told so by foreign powers would spell the end to the Syrian revolution and turn Syrian rebels into a redundant proxy militia – a nightmare scenario for everyone standing with the Free Syrian Army and its allies, inside and outside Syria.

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Julian Röpcke is a newspaper editor and political commentator, based in the German capital, Berlin. With a degree in Political Geography and Sociology, Mr. Röpcke started analyzing geopolitical conflicts after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. He covered the “Arab Spring” as well as the evolving conflicts in Syria and Ukraine from their very beginning. Julian Röpcke works for BILD, the largest newspaper and leading online news portal in Germany (@JulianRoepcke).