Putin is not stupid to realize that in his last endeavor for “peace”, the essential ingredients to making peace are missing. First and foremost, Syrians (both regime and opposition) are not there, Arabs are not there, the UN and its terms of reference for achieving peace are not there, and Syria’s Friends (however ineffective they might be) are also not there.
What may make up for such an essential loss of what it takes to bring peace for Syria−as Mr. Putin wishes−is first a clear and unquestionable American endorsement of what he is proposing, and second a clear-cut will that he can guarantee a substantial change in the Assad regime, especially the removal of Assad and his close gang, and third a return of Syrians, refugees and displaced, to their homes, and more importantly western and regional guarantees of rebuilding.
Even if Mr. Putin could achieve almost the impossible with what he got and what might be availed or guaranteed for him by others, there remains certain stumbling blocks that might ruin his whole proposal. On top of this is Iran’s stubbornness and determination to achieve its goals in and through Syria. Iran must be feeling that if it goes along with what Putin is proposing, its dreams (though Iran attended the Moscow meeting) will come to an end – not only in Syria but in the region as a whole. The second challenge facing Mr. Putin is an American-Israeli one. The Americans and the Israelis might have a real interest in the continuity of the war in Syria, because it is a source of attrition to many of their enemies and on top Russia and Iran. It is also further weakening and a source for more dependency for their allies. It is also in harmony with their agent’s motto in Damascus: “If I don’t rule it, I will ruin it.”
Though he appears to be comfortable and in control of matters, Mr. Putin must be in a very critical, sensitive and awkward position. First, he should forget to eat the pie and keep it. He cannot flirt with certain influential regional powers thinking that he can sideline others and achieve success. He cannot count on a warm relationship with Trump, because the US, unlike Russia, is governed by institutions. Mr. Putin cannot continue to disregard the UN that he undermined by his 6 vetoes. More than anything else, he cannot go to bed with the pariah regime of the Mullahs which is detested internationally, and continue to protect a criminal regime at the expense of losing 22.9 million Syrians and hundreds of millions of Arabs and Muslims.
Mr. Putin’s only way out is to make the move no one has yet made, and to take the step no one has yet taken in Syria. It is for once siding by the Syrian people and standing for their aspiration in freedom and political change. This would be Putin’s undefeatable move and unchallengeable step. This is a road not taken yet, simply because it is an extraordinary one. It sure will turn out to be the secret key to success no one has tried yet. Would Putin do it?! He, more than anyone else, knows what it takes. Though I am not fond of the man, Mr. Putin shouldn’t wait for Trump’s extra-ordinariness in making such a move.
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