The announcement of this agreement followed the US targeting of a meeting of military leaders in Fatth al-Sham in the southern countryside of Aleppo. This raid resulted in the death of the Commander in Chief of Jaysh al-Fatth, Abu Omar Saraqib, who was the commander of the operation to break the siege on Aleppo. Saraqib was conducting a meeting with a number of military commanders to resume military action towards the city, after the regime and its allies managed to encircle it once again.
The US-Russian agreement did not bring anything new, but perhaps resumed what had been agreed upon a few months ago, which was a truce followed by negotiations for an unclear transitional period as the topic of Assad’s removal was avoided, while his security and military institutions remain intact. During this truce, fighting groups such as Nusra and ISIS, which were excluded from the truce, were targeted.
The last implementation of this agreement was when Nusra Front announced the cutting of its ties from al-Qaeda and breaking the siege on Aleppo. The Aleppo siege-breaking tipped the balance of power on ground, which made the US postpone the implementation of its agreement with Russia that aims to mainly weaken the military forces of the opposition in favor of Russia, forcing the Syrian opposition to make political concessions in the coming negotiations.
Did the Front actually sever its ties with al-Qaeda?
The Front announced through its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the severing of its ties from al-Qaeda on July 28 – almost a month and a half ago. This announcement confirmed that it no longer operated as Nusra Front, but rather established a new entity under the name of Fatth Al-Sham Front.
This announcement was followed – and coincided with the battle of Aleppo – by a brief audio recording of its al-Joulani leader devoid of the traditional al-Qaeda discourse and shyly adopted a new language other than those familiar in previous speeches. This speech was followed by assurances made by the official spokesman of the Front, Hossam El-Shafei, in several newspapers, that the disengagement is not a formality but is systematic to relieve the people of Syria and cause rapprochement between the fighting groups.
El-Shafei stated that those who were closely observing the unification talks that took place recently between the fighting opposition groups led by Ahrar al-Sham and Fatth al-Sham Front would notice the drastic change in the discourse of the Front and its goals. If it had not actually severed its ties with al-Qaeda, El-Shafei said that they would not have agreed to unite with it under one name.
What is the purpose behind targeting Fatth al-Sham and excluding it from the truce?
One of the main objectives of the Russian-American agreement is attempting to subdue the Syrian opposition and forcing it to make political concessions by exploiting the humanitarian issue of the areas under siege. The most important now is Aleppo, breaking its military strength and preventing it from making any new progress in light of the recent Turkish intervention and the success of the Euphrates Shield operations in the north and east of Aleppo. This is in turn reshuffling the Syrian equation. It has become a real threat to the interests of the international parties involved in the Syrian conflict, particularly the United States which is the most prominent supporter of the separatist militias of Saleh Muslim who are the main losers from these operations.
All of the struggling international parties are fully aware of the military power of Fatth al-Sham Front and its organizational superiority, and fear a real unification between the opposition fighting groups led by Fatth al-Sham, which could reflect a new military equation that may flip the path of the Syrian file completely. Therefore, the United States rushed to conclude an agreement with Russia, and prior to this agreement sent several messages to the opposition via its Syrian envoy Michael Ratney, warning the opposition groups of cooperating with the Front and confirming that it is a terrorist organization that must not be dealt with. This aimed at preventing the opposition factions from merging with the Front.
What are the options of Fatth al-Sham and the other Syrian groups?
The Front understands – like other forces and Islamist movements – that they are on the West’s target list, and that there is no way to protect itself except by giving up its old curricula and engaging in the international game to make it difficult to directly classify it’s organization so it can be able to manoeuvre politically to remain within the Syrian arena and protect its sacrifices.
In the Syrian equation, all of the Islamic-oriented factions and the Free Syrian Army who have real power will be liquidated one after the other, unless it unites under the umbrella of a clear national project. The international powers are seeking to impose a political solution that fits their interests, not the interests of the Syrians, and will seek to eradicate any military forces that aim at preventing the imposition of this solution under many pretexts.
This makes the responsibility between Fatth al-Sham and the rest of the factions a shared one. The Front must take a bold step in adopting a national agenda inclusive of all Syrians, which is a difficult step, but it is the only option that protects itself and protects the Syrian arena. In return, this will encourage the rest of the factions to integrate with the front, and this in turn will push all the national forces at various orientations to defend it, in order to crystallize the salvation project for the Syrians and prevent the international forces from playing that card, which has long been exploited for the liquidation of the Syrian revolution and preventing it from reaching its goal of salvation from the Assad regime.
We are now in a race with time, and hesitancy would hurt the Syrian revolution and its joint forces. It will also open new doors of international targeting, which will cause it intolerable damage in coming days.
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