Another ceasefire, another license for Assad to kill

Another ceasefire, another license for Assad to kill
On February 26, a ceasefire for Syria was agreed upon between the United States and Russia. It included a total stop of hostilities against civilians as well as the rebels pledging to not to attack regime troops and the regime pledges to not attack rebel troops. Then-Nusra and ISIS were the only two parties which were not part of the deal and which were allowed to be targeted by Russia, the US and the Assad regime.

More than 6000 Syrian civilians paid with their lives for this dirty deal since then (according to the SNHR), which was fully ignored by Russia and the Syrian regime since day 1 of coming into effect. It led to unprecedented bloodshed, dozens of gas attacks on children by the regime air force, almost a hundred hospitals and medical facilities were destroyed by Russian precision bombs, 300.000 people in Aleppo besieged and depending on the “good will” of Russia and Assad and last but not least the worst-ever single case of ethnic displacement during the war in the Damascus suburb of Darayya.

In other words, every sane statesman should have realized by now that Russia and the Assad regime are no trustful partners for any sort of negotiations, not interested in peace and only use “cessations of hostilities“ to fulfill their strategic goals by a mix of diplomatic and military means.

Six months and eleven days later, the United States and Russia agreed on another “Cessation of Hostilities“, "renewing and improving" the deadly February deal that led to nothing but sorrow for the Syrian people and improved the situation for the regime.

The deal legalizes Russian and regime air strikes and ground attacks against "Nusra" targets, ignoring not only that the group does not exist anymore and another target definition of Islamist extremist terror groups would be needed but also neglecting the proven fact that both Assad’s and Putin’s forces claim to have ONLY targeted “Nusra” since February. Both not just labeled every rebel group they needed to be “Jabhat al-Nusra” but also lied to the world that “not a single” civilian was targeted, let alone killed by their attacks on cities and villages across the opposition-held territory.

The new “ceasefire" document also makes no mention of the tens of thousands of Shiite armed extremists, led by the Iranian regime and fighting for dictator Assad in Syria. These forces do not stand under the command of Bashar Assad but are directly commanded from the Mullah regime in Tehran. Looking at their numbers, they are one of the top five actors in the complicated war mixture in Syria. Not mentioning them and Iran’s leading influence on the course of the war makes the “ceasefire” paper a non-starter, even if the mentioned parties would obey its terms. If these troops keep fighting to extend the regime-held territory Russia and Damascus could−rightfully−say they do not violate the agreement while their strategic goals are implemented. Opposition to moves by the militias could be called “imminent threats by Nusra” and countered by air strikes−Russian and even American ones.

It seems frightening that there is little to no foreign objection to the new paper, which also does not mention Assad and makes a departure of the genocidal dictator less likely than ever. Even Turkey "welcomed" the latest ceasefire deal and its ongoing ground operation in northern Syria against ISIS and the YPG suggests that it was at least informed beforehand about the outcome of the US-Russian negotiations and agreed to it.

The renewal and amplification of a ceasefire deal−and looming US-Russian military alliance−that only helped the Syrian regime and its allies so far, will most probably further strengthen dictator Assad and those playing with him from behind the curtains. It is another victory for Assad, legitimizing not only him but also the methods his bloc used in the war that led to the death of hundreds of thousands of civilians. 

Last but not least, it is a diplomatic coup for Russia. While Moscow has nothing to offer but more or less bombs on Syrian civilians, the never-before seen political weakness of Europe and the United States in particular, gave it another huge push in its aspiration to become the most important political player in the international theater. The power vacuum the Obama administration created is filled by a weak Russia, despite acting like a bull in a china shop. The western failure to offer meaningful alternatives to Russia’s rough political-military moves makes it look like a key player to solve international conflicts, while in fact it is the very party that causes them. This is especially true for Syria, and Assad is benefiting from it like no other dictator on earth.

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Julian Röpcke is a newspaper editor and political commentator, based in the German capital, Berlin. With a degree in Political Geography and Sociology, Mr. Röpcke started analyzing geopolitical conflicts after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. He covered the “Arab Spring” as well as the evolving conflicts in Syria and Ukraine from their very beginning. Julian Röpcke works for BILD, the largest newspaper and leading online news portal in Germany (@JulianRoepcke).

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