The writer explains that Obama’s and Putin’s inability to broker a deal is less about their shrinking differences around the war, or willingness to agree. It is more of a mutual realization of powerlessness in implementing such deal, as the trajectory of Syrian conflict and actions of rivaling actors takes separate path from that sought by the Kremlin and the White House.
As for why the talks failed, Karam points out that meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China, Putin and Obama had every intention of reaching a deal in Syria. American-Russian convergence in finding a political settlement, prioritizing counterterrorism, and saving the faltering components of Syria has defined both of their interests -albeit different approaches- for over two years now.
The rhetoric heard from China, and the actors negotiating with not one Syrian in the room, brought forth a completely detached setting from the reality of the war. This in itself doomed the talks to fail or even a deal if it were to be finalized.
Hezbollah and Iran have had more say in steering the Aleppo battle and influencing Assad than Moscow.
Karam concludes that the grim situation on the ground and the dichotomy between the actors inside Syria and those on the outside negotiating a political solution, promises a continuation of the war until the internal dynamics have shifted.
In the meantime, both Russia and the US will likely keep attempting to find common ground in Syria around counterterrorism, while acknowledging lack of leverage for significant political progress to settle the conflict.
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