The Erdogan-Assad tension led directly and indirectly to a worsening of relations between Turkey and every party backing Assad, in particular Russia and Iran. What is good food for one is poison for the other. The Turkish shooting down of a Russian jet was the climax of tension between Turkey and Russia. There was even talk about military confrontation. An Erdogan move based on mutual Russian-Turkish interests and needs brought back relations to normal.
There remains a major stumbling block between the two countries, namely, the Syrian issue, and in particular the attitude towards B. Assad leaving or staying. Statements by Turkish officials in that regard confused the scene further as no disclosures came out of the Turkish-Russian communication. Speculations have started to loom in the horizon that Turkey wouldn’t mind Assad staying in power in Syria.
Relations between states and individuals are not based on emotions and wishful thoughts; there are mutual geopolitical, economic, social, historical, and even moral needs, concerns and interests.
If one is to investigate what each party can be or give to the other, we may be shocked to even hear such speculations looming in the horizon concerning a possible reconciliation between Erdogan and B. Assad.
As stated earlier, the Kurdish issue is Turkey’s major concern. B. Assad was said to have leverage in that regard; he can create problems for the Turks, and he can ease them out. Historically, unfortunately, that was the case. Today, however, B. Assad himself needs somebody to protect him from their anger and revenge as they discovered how harmful B. Assad has been with regard to the Kurds. What happened in Al-Hasaka is a case in point.
Assad’s call upon the Russians to come to his rescue put them face to face with Turkey in a confrontational way that resulted in a tension that almost led to something devastating to both Russia and Turkey. Erdogan did not need Assad for a rapprochement with Putin; B. Assad was a source or instigator of the bitterness between the two men. And that is why−not him only but the whole Syrians issue−was sidelined, when the two men reconciled.
Almost the same thing can be said with regard to Turkey’s relations with Iran. Assad constitutes a liability and a black spot that triggered bitterness and tension between the two countries.
As for the entity Assad claims to be in control of, economically, the old days are over. Assad ruined this entity and no partner would be ready to lose billions on such a relationship. Moreover, the Assad state is so fragmented with no sovereignty to the extent that Erdogan has recently stated that Turkey is ready to go in to protect the oneness of Syria. Furthermore, the presumed partner−Assad−is there out of protection from other states and proxy militias and mercenaries.
As for the moral issue, no one could imagine a leader or a state−by the end of WWII−to have shown any willingness to reconcile with Hitler. Erdogan who insists on considering Syrians in Turkey as guests, and who−probably more than anyone else other than uprooted Syrians−knows the plight of Syrians. He knows that B. Assad’s brutality, dictatorship and unbalanced character are behind the Syrian tragedy. However high the interests of Turkey, and however necessary diplomacy is, befriending again or reconciling with a killer will be a demoralizing thing for Erdogan and Turkey as well. How could you reconcile with somebody who killed over half million of his people, ruined over half of his country and displaced over half of its population?!
Even if the Russians, American or Iranians pressure Turkey for their own ill-purposes, Turkey’s Erdogan will find more benefit in detaching himself from such a plague rather than compromising with it.
Speculations about smoothing relations with Assad–even a short-term transitional stay−will not be more than wishful, and possibly ill-intentioned thinking or endeavor. With Turkey more in a state of comfort today vis-à-vis Russia, Iran and the US, its contribution to the opposite of what is being speculated about reconciliation with Assad may be the reverse. As such, Assad’s end maybe closer.
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