The 17 countries which constitute “International Syria Support Group” met in Vienna on May 17 as if they were completing the first day of the meeting 100 years after the expiry of Skyes–Picot agreement which was entered into on 16 May 1916.
Vienna meeting was supposed to be a detailed conference that would result in decisions and attitudes to convince the allies which have converged in Paris’ last meeting. Or, it was supposed to end Geneva as a reference in order to move to another plan which should be plan B. Such plan should state on a military council, a regional- Arab intervention or an exile government with full legitimacy.
Highlights on the last developments
On April 26, Turkish foreign minister announced reaching an agreement with the United States about deploying missile system near the Turkish- Syrian borders. The Turkish foreign minister expressed his hope about the negotiations with the US in terms of establishing a “safe zone” north of Syria between the cities of Manbij and Jarablous. The minister adds that “our goal is to cleanse this 98 km borderline from ISIS”.
On April 27, a Russian- American brokered informal meeting was held in Vienna. The meeting aroused a lot of controversy after the collapse of the ceasefire that coincided with leaks about an American- Russian understanding to write a new constitution!!! The goal behind holding that recommended meeting was to add a new element that supports Assad’s procrastination claiming that there are actual constitutional obstacles before the very idea of Geneva; a political transition that implies transitioning all powers from Assad to a new governing body.
Briefly speaking, this case is nothing but an obstructive pretext that aims at busying Syrians with more conferences and workshops turning the crisis into a constitutional dispute.
What de Mistura group did is that it developed a new idea about quotas i.e. sharing responsibilities and positions in a procedural way between Assad regime and the opposition.
The report, submitted by de Mistura to the Security Council, included 18 points of agreement and 15 others of disagreement.
The report disregarded that Geneva I was the outcome of a political and international assessment of the regime’s legal and constitutional violations against its own citizens. Therefore, observers unmistakably realize that Geneva I was a relatively just appraisal of the conflicts’ two sides. Plus, it was based on a number of security and military actions, then crowned with the characterization of the form of a full power-transitional body; thus, turning de Mistura’s action into a kind of emptying the principal of accountability and justice agreed on in Geneva I and replacing it with a number of ideas to be discussed and consented on destroying, thus, the essential idea of Geneva I.
May 9
Paris hosted a meeting for the “International Syria Support Group” as a first repercussion of the war and atrocities in Aleppo caused by Assad- Russian airstrikes that targeted the civil incubator of the armed opposition, in order to push it to surrender and give up fighting.
Before Paris meeting, and in a remarkable proactive step, the US secretary of state and Russia’s foreign minister held a bilateral meeting and issued a provocative statement for the Germans and the French. The statement annoyed the Germans and the French which were complaining about the obscure American attitude of solo-coordinating with the Russians about the Syrian crisis.
Paris meeting took place amid an atmosphere of distrust between the Europeans on one hand and the Americans and Russians on the other. The meeting showed divergence and dispute and pushed towards coordinating attitudes in the form of a new bloc in case the American-Russian deception continues to make an alliance within the “International Syria Support Group” before holding Vienna meeting, which will be pushing towards re-imposing the fragile ceasefire and holding talks in Geneva IV.
For the first time, the meetings of “International Syria Support Group” are held in two places within one week’s time! This simply indicates a deep difference between the members of the group.
This event is not a division or a convergence in the group only. It is rather a kind of putting an end to the obstruction made by the Americans and Russians in the Syrian cause where the limit drawn by the world to both Lavrov and Kerry has ended.
What happened in Paris resulted in dividing the Friends of Syria into two groups. The first is the group of the US and Russia, while the second is led by Germany and France and includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is a European- Islamic and Arab bloc that has emerged after the state of imbalance that was caused by Obama’s policy which has opened the Arab and Muslim regions before the Russians who treated boastfully with the region, broke the bridges with the Arab countries ( Gulf Countries on top which Saudi Arabia) and were hostile to Turkey.
The European camp, led by Germany, does not bear any hostility towards the US and does not seek to isolate itself from such superpower. It rather focuses on redrawing the map of powers and gives Germany its international prominent role that it deserves.
May 12
The US announced the official activation of a new radar system in Romania. Another similar system is to be activated soon in Poland too. A NATO command and control center will be established in Ramstein Airbase in Germany. American warships with anti-Air missile system will be deployed in Spain. These new deployments mark a new mission for the European Air Defense System. This simply means that the US has got the European message and made a quick turn in its attitude while Russia expressed its condemnation and is upset of the American attitude after months of coordination between the two superpowers.
May 13
The US announced reaching an agreement with Turkey about cleansing the area located between Manbij and Mare’ from ISIS. The American announcement coincided with the state of emergency ISIS has called for in preparation to the attack due to be launched by Turkey along with alliance forces and Syrian opposition.
The planned Turkish land intervention will not be a limited one. It will be carried out with American guarantees as the Turkish side always wanted. The liberation of Manbij and Jarablous will be a big hit to ISIS in the northern part of Syria. However, the Turkish intervention will abort the Kurdish plan aiming at connecting Kobani with Afrin. It will also put an end to compulsory displacement that has caused many Arab residents to flee their areas. This means that this area will be banned for ISIS and Kurdish forces. To achieve this goal they will have to deploy forces that change the area into a safe belt leading consequently to cut supply lines of the Kurdish forces. This explains the proactive Russian-Kurdish step in cutting Castillo Road linking between Aleppo and its countryside.
Saleh Muslim, PYD leader who has links to the PKK, says that he is neither a separatist nor he is looking for establishing an independent state.
This new attitude means retreating from previous attitudes in order to reduce the Russian and Turkish pressures.
The repercussions of the current Turkish plan against ISIS will be necessarily directed against Assad given the link between Assad regime and ISIS. Turkey will support the moderate opposition brigades. The Turkish plan will develop later, but, during its first phase it will act in the Russian way. Russians said that their intervention was mainly against ISIS, but practically they targeted moderate opposition and civilians in different areas in Syria, where ISIS has no existence.
Soon, many new brigades and military alliances will appear such as the “Northern Front.” This means that Al-Nusra Front will be out while guarantees or unifications will be done in a different way. This explains the attitude of Saleh Muslim in terms of the changes in the area that his forces control. Arab tribes said that they won’t fight with “Syrian Democratic Forces” to fight ISIS. This means that Muslim will lose a significant part of his military force which joined his forces for a reason related to financial support. Those tribes have announced their attitude because they have been mobilized by Turkey in their new project (The Northern Front) in conjunction with Saleh Muslim’s forces heading towards Ar-Raqqa to fight ISIS.
May 13
US ex- Secretary of State James Baker (1989-1992), in a session held by the foreign relations committee in the Congress titled “The role of the US in the world,” stressed the need to support the Turkish suggestion calling for imposing a “no-fly Zone” over Syria, He pointed out that such a step will help end the Syrian crisis. Baker described Obama’s rejection of establishing a “no-fly zone” in the north of Syria as “very bad decision.” Baker added that if this project had been established, ISIS wouldn’t have been able to move. Baker stressed that America should strengthen its ties with Saudi Arabia.
The attitude of James Baker is used by Democrats to tell Obama that he has to accomplish some missions and repair the dysfunction in the American policy in the Middle East before he leaves the White House, making the way before Hillary Clinton.
The American and Turkish statements alongside with what the HNC Coordinator Riad Hijab announced mean that what will follow clearing the borderline from ISIS is the emergence of new military gatherings under new names and trends on the ground to run those areas. This also means that Turkey has made a detailed plan for the next phase, and the new forces have been chosen in order to control the areas since the Turkish forces will not stay for a long time.
Establishing a “no-fly zone” may mean providing the opposition with more sophisticated weapons. This will surely be a surprising step for both the Russians and Iranians and will have further results on the political side.
Today, the extreme wing in the Iranian regime doesn’t accept to divide the solution. It rather wants the whole solution made in its way by crushing the opposition and then to suggest a solution. There is also the Syrian opposition which has nothing to make concessions about despite all the flexibility it showed in Geneva.
Iran and its tools
Iran alongside its militias (Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah, Afghani and Iraqi Shia militias) are in serious trouble as the regime itself. Russians have sent clear messages to Assad regime saying that they abstain from bombarding some areas to make them understand that without the Russian warplanes, you would be exposed and unprotected. The same thing was done with the Iranians and Hezbollah.
The coded message reached the Southern Neighborhood in Beirut where Hezbollah command is. The message meant that after Hezbollah was shelled, had many causalities and was subject to many ambushes while trying to save its injured members, it is now exposed and is being infiltrated. The question, however, is who can make such an infiltration?
This infiltration was made by other forces which are most likely the Russians themselves who leaked this information to a third party. That third party delivered them to the opposition which did its best in dealing painful blows to the Iranians and their means in order to limit their influence.
Choosing Mohsen Rizaai instead of Qasim Suleimani started as a rumor, but turned to be true. This news doesn’t mean sending more troops, but contrary to what is being announced, what is needed is preserving what is left in order to decrease the amount of involvement rather than increasing it. This is because Iran cannot cross the red lines set for it. In this respect, sending Iranian warships near the Syrian coast under the same claim was no more than propaganda bubbles by which Iran pretended that it will teach the Syrian opposition a hard lesson. The truth, however, is that Iran will not be able to give any lessons after losing many commanders in Syria.
Many of the senior Iranian military leaders were killed after the Russian intervention. Even Hezbollah and other Shia militias’ leaders were more targeted after the Russian intervention. This means that there are international powers which are keen on sending messages to Assad and Iran in order to make concessions, otherwise the repercussions will be bad. There are even signals as Iran claims a Turkish role in killing those leaders or in running an operation room that targets Iranian leaders. Some observers claim that many of those Iranian military leaders were killed by arrangement between Assad regime and Russia which are not feeling comfortable about Iran’s dominance over Syria.
Those growing disputes about the Syrian crisis among Iranian politicians, Iranian Army leaders, the Revolutionary Guard and the religious establishment as well as the state of anger and congestion in Iran should all, as internal reasons, push the Iranian leadership to make a reconsideration and re-assessment of its policies in Syria.
The Russian attitude
Russians know, more than Assad and Iran, the western view about the regime remaining in power but not Assad. This means that the west accuses Russians of being fool because they couldn’t come up with a new figure from military officers that would substitute Assad. This, also, has not been understood by the powerful figures in the regime until now. The message was clear; either you move and make concessions or the game is over because it is the last chance. This has been told by the allies to Russia as well.
Russia has taken Geneva file from General Brigadier Ali Mamlouck and gave the control over some procedures to Qadri Jameel. The so- called Hemeimeem opposition was sent to Russia last Friday.
The command leading the military, security and political operations in Syria belonged completely to the extreme wing of the Assad regime. Taking the file from Mamlouck is perceived as either preparing him for another role, or excluding him from the whole game which is unlikely to happen since he is one of the most influential figures in the regime. He is the one who traveled to Saudi Arabia, Moscow and Tehran. This man simply means so much to the regime and its allies.
Pressuring the extreme wing of the regime, the emergence of the European- Gulf (Muslim) bloc, the change in the American attitude caused by the European attitude, as well as the Turkish success in stopping the influx of refugees; all of these developments in addition to the Turkish military intervention, were a result of the European pressure on the Americans. If no safe zone is established by Turkey, the influx of refugees will keep annoying Europe. This is what the Iranians and Russians are working on, since escalating the situation will push more refugees to the borders. They are not going to besiege Aleppo because they realize that they are not going to restore it.
The maximum limit that regime’s alliance can achieve is to block the Castillo Road linking between Aleppo and Turkey (Russian warplanes and Saleh Muslim’s forces bombarded it on May 16). They can also push more refugees to the borders and cause more destruction until they turn the whole area into a besieged one.
Today, Assad regime is going through its worst times since the start of the conflict five years ago, in addition to the gradual attrition that caused heavy losses before.
Russians started threatening but their attitude has become weaker because they were obliged to use this tactic with the Americans. Russians can’t go beyond the American will. Americans have used the Russians in achieving what they want without firing one bullet. Russia has become involved in war crimes and crimes against humanity.
On the other hand, what Russians can achieve is only providing Assad regime with intelligence information, but they will not be able to make any move that may obstruct the Turkish- American plan because it is directed against ISIS.
It is expected, during the coming few days and according to a well informed source, to announce the establishment of a safe zone in the south of Syria. Most likely, Darra will be included in this zone. This means that those areas will be protected from any airstrikes or military operations. The contact lines will be drawn so that those areas won’t have any presence of Hezbollah, Iran or Assad regime. This area will have many benefits that will result in improving life conditions for the Syrian refugees in Jordan.
However, the battle of Damascus remains the key battle. Reaching it needs the full collapse of Geneva I because it is an advanced phase in “Plan B”. Lifting the red line from Damascus is linked to what the regime and its Russian and Iranian allies will offer in Geneva. In case the conference was held, we will not see Jaffari representing Assad regime in it.
Report prepared by Centre for Strategy-Military & Security Studies on Syria (CSMSSS)
Translated into English by Orient Net English
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