Despite the emergence of a new cold war between Washington and Moscow the interaction and common work in the Syrian crisis between the two ministers hasn’t been influenced that much.
So, can these remaining months in Obama’s presidency be Russia’s golden chance to come up with a solution that best suits Putin? Or will they be the most difficult moths particularly after Kerry said that war in Syria has become uncontrollable?
Undoubtedly, the international imbalance in terms of the Syrian crisis and the ferocity of the regional and local confrontations give no indications about any positive breakthroughs in a region that has turned into a volcano in which Syria has become the central circle for several wars that are implied in one war.
This war that some powers are thinking of as a chance to redraw the international order or reordering the whole region on different principles. However, the Russian reaction and Putin’s open appetite on one hand and the US inaction and withdrawal on the other will lead to an agreement or a political settlement while the Syrian crisis will probably need more time waiting for a new American leadership to resettle the international and regional balance of power.
Six months separate between November 14, the date of Vienna’s last meeting that launched Geneva track, and May 17 the date designated for Syria’s international group that is supposed to discuss the future of political solution in Syria.
This period was militarily and politically full of crucial developments for the situation in Syria. Many important developments took place on top of which UNSC Resolution 2254 which has become the political reference for the Syrian crisis.
Despite the fragile ceasefire agreement that didn’t survive for a long time and Aleppo’s battles which were intended to be decisive by Iran, the announcement about Vienna III next week came to trigger new hopes concerning new rounds of talks in Geneva before next June according to de Mistura’s ideas that conform with an American-Russian determination to sponsor these efforts and exert extraordinary mutual efforts through “The Ceasefire Monitoring Center” in Geneva – an American-Russian mutual coordination center- which signals an American consent with the Russian role in dealing with the crisis.
However, this coordination looks pretty strange in the time of strategic disturbance that is dominating the international order.
In the context of this unique understanding about Syria both Kerry and Lavrov don’t look appreciative towards some European- Gulf Countries understandings that may break the superpowers’ domination over the Syrian file.
This means that Paris’s attempts to face this American-Russian alliance weren’t totally successful but it has at least helped the American attitude and to prepare for a better round in Geneva talks.
Khatar Abu Diab in Al-Arab
Translated by Orient Net English