Putin sent some of his forces and warplanes, but he was very cautious about not going too deeply into the Syrian quagmire. Putin managed to help Assad survive, but he decided to pull back some of his forces. Unlike Russia, Iran can’t pull back whatever the cost is. Putin doesn’t want Assad to fall, but he is ready to make compromises. However, the longer Putin stays in Syria, the less influential Iran becomes.
What makes the situation more complicated is that Iran needs Moscow in two main fields: weapons & the nuclear program.
Moscow has a strategy and it has numerous concerns. Putin wants his country to become a partner in decision making with Washington; Washington wins through coordination with Moscow through tightening the grip around Iran in an indirect way.
Iran certainly has multi-phased strategy and many plans. Therefore, it won’t give up Assad whatever the cost is. However, some say that Iran can sacrifice Assad in case it can ensure its strategic influence that starts from Baghdad and ends in Beirut. This strategic line is its lifeline for its own existence and the dominance of its agents.
Does this strategy mean that betting in change in the Iranian policy is hopeless?
In case moderates get a push there will be a new trend in the Iranian politics about establishing more effective conversation with its geographic neighboring. In the opposite side the Saudi strategy has set a new red line before the Iranian influence in Yemen and Syria.
This new strategy will not crystallize quickly because military escalation has the upper hand. The final choices will be determined when the US and its partners decide to change the situation and create a new and more stable one.
Asaad Haidar in Al-Mustqbal
Translated by Orient Net English
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