Aleppo under the "truce" or "regime of calm"?

The “regime of calm,” according to diplomats, is less than a truce and less than a cessation of hostilities, or else a term which means a topical calm in certain areas and not a permanent and continuous calm all across, would not have been used.

So what will happen in Aleppo? In fact, this term states that the regime will try again, with the support of its allies, to capture Aleppo from the opposition.

Due to the two terms – “truce” and “regime of calm” – the disagreements that were raised over the characterization of the outcome that has been reached between the foreign ministers of the US and Russia – John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov – showed serious differences between the US and Russian sides on the visibility of the path in Syria.

The situation became in the fate of what is happening between the US and Russia, and not in the UN Security Council or even Syria’s international support group.

Certain diplomats fear that giving away of US position would cause the Europeans to resist the US.

UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura warned after meeting with the foreign ministers of the Europeans that about 400,000 people from Aleppo will flee to Turkey in case the negotiations to declare a truce fail.

In addition, ISIS’ existence in Syria serves the Assad regime because then, there will always be a possibility that Syria could fall in the hands of terrorist organizations, for that Assad does not want ISIS’ stronghold but rather he wants Aleppo. If Assad captures Aleppo then he would have gained control over the so-called Syria’s useful features. This will provide him with the power to easily give up the capturing of certain areas while focusing on strengthening his fronts – as Russian and Iranian support continue.

The Assad regime is in need of a permanent tentative struggle with ISIS so it can regain its power and authority on the areas that fell under its control and so it can negotiate from a different, much powerful position – an attitude Assad could not negotiate with without the Russian military intervention.

Rosana Boumonsef in Annahar.