The Pentagon had previously expected Russia to expand its air campaign after Kommersant newspaper announced that the Russian military had sent 4 extra Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to the Hmeimim airbase, which are characterized by their superior manoeuvrability and performance of combat missions.
In that way, the number of units of the air fleet participating in operations inside Syria increased to seventy fighters and bombers of different models. Even though De Mistura’s postponing was only a temporary decision, Russian air strikes showed him that his mission would take a miracle to be completed, especially when the Obama administration told him that they no longer demand Assad to step down as one of the conditions for the talks to proceed.
In the meantime, sources in Damascus said that De Mistura wanted to revive his mission 6 months ago, and the reason was because he received a report in September confirming Russian air force conducting heavy air strikes on opposition-controlled areas. The report added that new reinforcements had arrived to Syria from Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.
The UN envoy saw these new reinforcements changing the power balance on the fighting scene; they are the reason that encouraged Assad to refrain from making concessions to the opposition delegation.
Commentators in strategic centers this week tried to interpret the hidden motives that led Vladimir Putin to conduct the battle of Aleppo in a devastating and violent manner.
The first motive – according to the US – lies in Moscow’s keenness to rush to end Syria’s war in order to narrow its focus on to the crisis in Ukraine. Since Iran’s military intervention within five years failed to settle the war in favour of Assad, the Russian intervention came as an influential contributor to the expulsion of the American, European and Turkish influence. The purpose behind all of this is to achieve influence across different parts in Syria and to secure dominance on the land and Assad altogether. It was natural that this unbridled military step would annoy its Iranian partner since it side lined Iran’s influence on the battlefield.
The second motive – which pushed Putin to use military force and postpone diplomatic means – is fear of a repeat of the Chechen uprising in Syria; sinking in the quagmire of the Syrian crisis so that it becomes the daily attrition, by ISIS or Nusra Front groups, a political and security slap, similar to what happened in the time of President Boris Yeltsin. During the first Chechen war (1994-1996) Yeltsin failed to suppress the people who demanded self-determination. When Putin took to the post in 1999, he ordered the military to use all means to annihilate the “terrorists.” It was during that war, a general invented the “barrel bombs.” It was due to this invention, Putin was able to defeat the Chechen’s’ separatist movement. In many occasions, Putin threatened to use these barrel bombs on those who oppose Assad in Syria, which could level Aleppo entirely.
Saleem Nassar in AL-Hayat.
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