Despite any kind of cessation of hostilities or "regime of silence", a military finalization of the issue is looming in the horizon. Bashar Assad said it verbatim, openly and publicly defying the Russian protector’s apparent will that he would not accept less than a total victory in Aleppo. The message is clear a victory in Aleppo will lead the opponent whoever it might be to a surrender. The victor will dictate the terms of any "peace" settlement discussed in Geneva or anywhere else.
Russia heard Assad’s statement. It knows that Iran is behind such defiance. Implicitly, it does not mind it; openly a rebuking Russian statement will come out. Russia would embarrass Washington too much in the Syrian case, nor would it be able to let Iran do things fully the Iranian or Assad way. Yet it knows well that controlling Aleppo is crucial to any settlement.
Another concern for Moscow is the Gulf arming of the Syrian opposition which will miss things up for the Assad-Iranian-Russian pact. As such, if Assad’s desired victory is not turned into defeat, there would be at least a no-win situation where the Geneva talks would make things politically take the Russian unwanted way.
Putin is balancing the Aleppo case with other geo-political strategic regional and international issues. No wonder why the Yemeni talks in Kuwait are getting complicated at the tone of the bombardment in Aleppo.
No wonder why Putin wants to use every minute of Obama’s days in the White House to achieve what he has in mind concerning Syria and other dangling and painful issues stuck to his side.
In the context of all that, disturbance in Iraq is having a real impact on the US, again at the tone of what is happening in and to Aleppo. And no wonder why the US has openly stated its backing to Abbadi in Iraq, and why al-Sadr was summoned for repentance to Iran. Such a move is appreciated by the US and credit is given to Iran for calming down the Green Zone. All that is being orchestrated at the tone of the crucial battle of Aleppo. Iran as such would guarantee its beneficent role in Syria through the implicit consent from the US and through the coordination of Russia.
Calculations on the other side contrast drastically with what is happening on the Assad-Iranian-Russian, and implicitly American side. The so-called "Syria Friends" count on Washington for preventing the defeat of the opposition, exactly as much as Moscow would not let the Assad regime get defeated. Such an equation would force the US turn a blind eye to arming the moderate opposition with anti-aircraft missiles that would prevent Assad from achieving victory in Aleppo and elsewhere.
All these calculations would evaporate once we realize that Aleppo is in Syria; and it is purely a Syrian case whatever the interest or the geopolitical conceptualizations preoccupying the minds of Putin, Khamenei, Obama or others might be. Even if things go their way, there is a brutal dictator named Bashar Assad who cannot hold on to the "victory" he is talking about, nor is he qualified anymore to rule or stay in power.
Those enabling him to talk and behave as such have other things to do, and they do have to attend to developing events and changing policies and politics around them. He is ultimately to be left alone to face people determined to get rid of him and his regime. There are facts on the ground in Syria no one could be to live with. There are millions each with a case that sends the criminal to The Hague ten times. And more than anything else, the crimes perpetrated in Syria by the Assad regime guarantee staining any accomplice be it Putin, Obama, Khamenei and whoever. All are in urgent need for a way out. Syrian blood, pain, misery and holocaust are chasing all of them. Syrians have paid their dues; it is high time for others to pay theirs.
--------------------------------------------------
Dr. Yahya Al-Aridi is a former university professor. He was the first dean of the Faculty of Media and Communication at Damascus University, Syria. Currently, Dr. Al-Aridi is the head of Orient Net English news website.
التعليقات (0)